Bellini had written that comScore’s estimate of 15% growth this quarter might mean Amazon’s sales would miss expectations if the company turned in only its average upside of 23 percentage points above the that overall growth figure.?
But Anmuth observes that Amazon’s outperformance relative to comScore data has been expanding this year, averaging 33 percentage points in the last three quarters.?
Anmuth believes that means Amazon could deliver at least 32 percentage?points of growth above comScore’s figure, turning in 47% growth. That would put Amazon’s total sales growth ahead of the 44% that Bellini cited as the consensus that Amazon has to beat.?
Anmuth also points out the limits to comScore’s data set:
We note that comScore��s eCommerce data measures just US desktop-based eCommerce, which we believe makes it difficult to draw a conclusion on Amazon’s WW revenue growth. comScore��s eCommerce data excludes sales through mobile phones and tablets, which could represent ~5-10% of US eCommerce (and growing rapidly) in 4Q.
Amazon shares today are down 14 cents at $173.75.?
