Tuesday, June 14, 2011

The Day FDR Tore Up The Constitution

With the Supreme Court nomination hearings for Elena Kagan last week, it's time once again to open up our "Pocket Constitutions."

Kagan has already faced questions on the constitutionality of "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" and the classic "Right to Bear Arms." But the major question that nominees always face during these events is whether the Constitution should be open to interpretation or if it is a literal document. And that got us thinking...

What if some of our current policies weren't so constitutional after all? After just a little research, we found that one of our most entrenched national institutions barely passed constitutional muster.

In part of FDR's New Deal, Social Security was dreamed up to protect people against financial devastation in their most dependent times. The concept of Social Security was straightforward; the constitutionality of it was not. In concept, the Social Security system would collect a special tax to fund a special account that provides financial support to the nation's elderly, disadvantaged and dispossessed.

But in constitutional terms, the Social Security program would collect taxes from the many to distribute funds to the few. Thus, the Social Security Act of 1935 was a truly groundbreaking piece of legislation...and maybe even unconstitutional.

Prior to the New Deal, legal precedent on the Supreme Court had established that any practice the Constitution did not explicitly permit was, by definition, unconstitutional.

Under the 10th Amendment, federal powers are restricted to what the Constitution says. Nevertheless, politicians and jurists throughout history have debated whether the letter or the spirit of the Constitution ought to be the deciding factor in any Supreme Court decision. Alexander Hamilton and James Madison debated this very idea in the early years of the republic. Hamilton argued the federal government could levy new taxes for the general welfare of the country in a broad sense. But Madison countered that the federal government could only levy new taxes specifically granted by the Constitution.

Central to the New Deal decision was whether or not the Social Security tax "provided for the general welfare" of the country. Creating a brand-new agency to collect and distribute a special tax was unheard of and there were no real precedents to fall back on.

Ultimately, the court settled this debate by declaring, "The powers of Congress to authorize expenditure of public moneys for public purposes is not limited by the direct grants of legislative power found in the Constitution."

This may have been the most expensive sentence ever issued by the Supreme Court. This one little phrase not only blessed the Social Security concept of taxation and redistribution, but it also created the first legal precedent for levying new taxes to fund specific programs.

The rest is history...and it's not a very pretty one. The Social Security system is functionally bankrupt...and growing more insolvent by the day. Far from spending "public moneys for public purposes," the Social Security system borrows foreign money for unsustainable entitlement benefits.

Today, roughly 18 million new or reissued Social Security cards are sent out each year. And more than $600 billion in payments are given to some 50.9 million beneficiaries of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and the Disabilities Trust Funds.

For years, we've heard that someday the Trust would begin to run deficits - handing out more payments than it receives through taxes. This date has always been in the distant future. But because of the economic meltdown of 2008-09, that day has unexpectedly arrived this year.

For the first time since Social Security was just a twinkle in FDR's eye, the Trust will lose money. The Congressional Budget Office predicts Social Security outlays to reach $708 billion in FY2010, up from $665 billion last year. Meanwhile, revenues are expected to fall flat near $670 billion.

Without significant changes to the system right now, this arguably unconstitutional program could disappear.   How to Cure an Economic Depression "As recently as two years ago, anyone predicting the current state of affairs (not only is unemployment disastrously high, but most forecasts say that it will stay very high for years) would have been dismissed as a crazy alarmist."

That was Paul Krugman in today's newspaper. Thomas Friedman is fixing problems in the Middle East, so we'll have to make do with Krugman to entertain us on economic matters.

It is amazing that anyone takes Krugman seriously. It is obvious now that he - and his fellow interventionists - had no idea what was going on two years ago.

Now, at least he sees the drift of events more clearly; we are headed towards a Japan-style deflationary slump.

"It's a good bet that by some measures we'll be seeing deflation by sometime next year," he writes.

"Mr. Bernanke has thought long and hard about how to avoid a Japanese- style economic trap, and the Fed's researchers have been obsessed for years with the same question. But here we are, visibly sliding toward deflation..."

So you see, dear reader, even a Nobel Prize-winning dog can learn a new trick. Now, he sees through a glass darkly... Soon, he will be face to face with deflation.

Of course, the poor man still completely misunderstands what is really going on. But what do you expect? His career depends on not understanding it. Krugman would have to turn his back on his neo- Keynesian creed if he ever caught on to the plot. He would have to look for a new job if he were ever to tell his readers about it. Almost everyone wants the feds to "do something" to avoid the Japanese "trap." Imagine what would happen if The NY Times' leading economist were to say:

"Forget it. The feds have already done too much. Following my advice, they were a major cause of the present crisis. Following my advice, they have made it worse. I was wrong. Now the best thing they can do is to withdraw as gracefully as possible."

That's not what Times readers want to hear. It's not what anyone wants to hear, except us "crazy alarmists" here at The Daily Reckoning.

We've been talking about the Japan trap for years. Economist Richard Koo calls it a "balance sheet recession." He's right about that. The private sector destroys excess capacity and excess debt. When it's over, the private sector balance sheet looks a lot better.

Of course, it could happen faster. In Japan, it may still be going on. Why? Because the Japanese feds worked so hard to stop it. Monetary stimulus. Fiscal stimulus. Quantitative easing. They tried everything. And kept at it for nearly 20 years.

But what they were really doing was preventing the one fix that really fixes. It is as if they were letting the air out of the market economy's tires...and then were amazed that it didn't roll.

You know what cures a depression, dear reader? We'll tell you. A depression.

A depression destroys excessive debt. Businesses with too much debt go broke. Bonds that can't be paid go into default. Households that have spent more than they could afford go broke.

Problem solved. Debt disappears.

Then, the economy can grow again.

So what does Krugman suggest? You guessed it: stop the process of debt destruction at all costs! Do what the Japanese did, in other words, only do more of it.

And more thoughts...

What's really going on?

No one knows. The world is much too complex a place to ever really know what is going on. At best, we can have a vague idea...and maybe see a couple broad trends developing.

Our guess is that the broad trend developing leads towards more debt destruction...deflation...and a Japan-style on-again, off-again slump.

US top stocks for 2011 still trade at 17-times earnings. Most likely, earnings are going down. P/E multiples are going down too. So, the Dow can be expected to shrink to half or less of today's level.

It's harder to see the trend in the bond market. Bill Gross says the two-decade bull market in bonds is over. We're not so sure. The 10-year yield - at 3.05% - is just above the record low from November '09. The 30-year is at 4.04%. Both seem to be sinking toward record lows (meaning higher bond prices).

Meanwhile, world trade appears to be slowing. The key shipping index has been down every day for a month. And the two biggest emerging markets both announced warning signs. China said yesterday that its property prices were declining. India said its rate of industrial production growth "sharply" declined to 11.5%.

If this is so, expect higher bond prices...and perhaps lower gold prices...over the next few years.

*** Does that mean you should sell your gold?

Well, if we were speculators, we might consider selling. But here at The Daily Reckoning, we're not gamblers. We hold gold because it represents real wealth, not because we think it will go up in price.

We don't really know what direction it is going. But that's why we hold it. We don't know what direction anything is going. The nice thing about gold is that it doesn't matter. Gold doesn't go anywhere. It just sits there.

If you buy a bond, for example, you have to worry about the credit quality of the issuer. If things get bad enough, he won't be able to pay up. Your bond could be worthless.

Same for 2011 top stocks. A stock is a share of a company. If the company goes out of business, your stock certificates (assuming you have them) are only good for decorations.

Real estate is more reliable. But there are taxes and upkeep to pay.

Gold is a better way to store wealth. You don't pay property taxes on it. And the roof never leaks.

Besides, gold is especially valuable when other forms of money lose their appeal. The trend of debt destruction will probably not end soon. And the feds will probably sooner or later follow Paul Krugman's advice to "raise [the Fed's] long-term inflation target to help convince the private sector that borrowing is a good idea and hoarding cash is a mistake."

In the meantime, gold may go down in dollar terms. Which will make a good time to buy it.

*** "Boy, those days were very different. It was before the war."

An uncle, 93, was reminiscing.

"I was so lucky. I had just gotten out of Polytechnic in Baltimore...which was what you'd call a high school...but I think it was much better than high schools today. And I had a girlfriend at the time whose father had bought her a little roadster. We'd drive around town and have a great time.

"I'd pull into a gas station. In those days, someone would come right out and start washing your windshield.

"I'd say 'fill 'er up' like I was a big shot. Gasoline was only 15 cents a gallon. But I only had 30 cents. Of course, no one had any money. And everybody knew that no one had any money. So I would say 'fill 'er up' to impress my girlfriend, but then I'd put my arm out the window and hold two fingers down so he knew I really only wanted two gallons.

"Ha ha...what a ball we had back then... And then I was lucky again. I got a job at the Bethlehem steel plant. I made $18 a week. That was a lot of money back then...I was on top of the world.

"Then, of course, along came the war. And we all knew what we had to do. So, we all went down to the armory and signed up.

"We'd had such good training in math and geometry at Poly that they put us in the artillery. And they sent me to officer training...

"And then, they sent me to the Pacific. And I was lucky again. I guess I've always been lucky. If I weren't so lucky I probably wouldn't still be here. They sent me to one of the islands. I was leading a platoon. My mission was to clean the enemy out of valley. We went in...and didn't encounter any resistance. And then we realized that it was a trap. We were surrounded. And they were shooting at us from every side. We radioed for help but there wasn't any help around.

"The men were looking at me... And I was just a young lieutenant... Good God, I thought we were all finished.

"I didn't know what to do. We were stuck. And if we stayed there, we were all going to be killed. So, I ran up a white flag. And when they stopped shooting, I got up and took a couple of men with me...and we advanced to where most of the shooting was coming from. Of course, we thought we were going to be gunned down at any minute. But they allowed us to come up to them...

"And I still didn't know exactly what I was doing...but it was too late to think...I went right up to the fellow who was in command and asked him to surrender!

"And he did! Ha...ha...I couldn't believe it.

"Boy, you can't imagine what that felt like... I was so lucky. He thought he was surrounded...and he was short of supplies."

Guide To Making A Fortune In The Stock Market of 2011

What If I told you that in less than five minutes you were going to learn the exact tools and techniques that will set you free... that will give you a financial independence that will make your friends jealous and your mother proud?

Would you believe me?

I don't know you and I don't know what kind of situation you're in. But I'll tell you what I do know. Almost every single person I talk to is afraid to even consider the possibility that I have the system that can give them the kind of luxury that they've already convinced themselves they'll never bask in.

And do you know why? Because nobody likes to be let down!

How many times have you been sucked in by some punk who "guarantees" that the system he's selling to you for an absurdly large amount of money... and then leaves you out to dry... with not enough change in your pocket to buy yourself an ice-cold soda?

It happens every day.

And you hate it. You hate being trapped by your financial woes and stress. And you should. And you're about to hate it even more. Why?

Because if you decide to walk away from this opportunity, this is what's going to happen:

You're going to go about your life... go to sleep wanting more... wake up wanting more.. and all along, in the back of your mind, you're going to remember that you passed up an opportunity to bypass all the junk and "filler" you've been a victim to for too long... and get your hands in a proven system that's taken people exactly like you and quenched their insatiable thirst for wealth, once and for all.

Do you want to know what I mean? Then keep reading.

You have to realize this:

You're lucky you hate having money problems. You're lucky you hate the hype, the scams and the run-around you've gotten for months... even years. I wouldn't want it any other way.

Why?

Because the mere fact that you loathe that money causes you stress day in and day out (not to mention the restrictions you must put on your lifestyle), it means that you'll have the sheer drive and will to take full advantage of the full-proof system you're about to discover (and by the way, it was the same sheer drive and will that drove me to become the stock market millionaire I am today).

"But I'm Not The Only One Who's Made A Killing In The Stock Market."

The stock market of 2011 is responsible for making more fortunes than you could possibly imagine (doubt it? Just look through any magazine or website devoted to the stock market of 2011 and you'll immediately see what I mean).

The problem is that all the "average Joe's" out there like you and me were always convinced that you had to know the ins and outs of how a company works... or to have some kind of insider connection to get the tools and training needed to become a successful trader.

This couldn't be farther from the truth.

In fact, many of my greatest success stories are from people just like you who know practically nothing about the stock market of 2011.

Like Andrew here:

I could not be more pleased with my decision to make an investment in myself through Adam's tutelage.

Adam Mesh took it from the very basics to where I am already trading inside of 3 lessons. I am sure I was much like many of you who had so much fear about trading in the stock market of 2011.

I was the same as you prior to my sessions with Adam Mesh.

His risk/reward method limits the risks while it maximizes the rewards. I know easier said then done. But I have already made back a little over 1/3 of my initial investment for Adam's mentoring inside of 4 weeks (4th lesson is this coming Tuesday).

The lessons that I have learned from Adam in terms of where to set my limits based on the levels have saved my hide.

Also looking at some of the key factors has kept me in when I would have sold without this knowledge.

I could not be more happy with the way my mentoring is going and I am glad I made the investment.

Andrew J. Pachon
Carlsbad, California

"Why Is Making Only $5,000 A Bad Day For Me."

Am I superstitious? Yes.

Am I an aggressive trader? Yes.

Am I animated? Definitely (I held the record not only for massive trades... but also for the number of keyboards I broke!).

But, when it comes down to it, I'm just an "Average Joe" that's found a system that will guarantee me success for the rest of my life.

I didn't go to "work" in a suit. I went into the office typically with an old T-shirt and a hat on backwards. In fact, I was famous for being so superstitious, that if I was having a massive winning streak, I would wear the same T-shirt for an entire week!

But even though you'll rarely catch me in a suit, I'm still considered a well respected expert in my field.

Yes, I was the star of the hit TV show "Average Joe: Adam Returns." But more importantly, I've been featured on CNBC's "Squawk Box," on CNN, in Trader Magazine, and... of course, that famous article in Fortune magazine, where they watched over my shoulder as I effortlessly pulled in $19,743 in one day (now, do you see why I consider $5,000 a bad day?).

"What Makes My Approach Different?"

So, yes, I'm a quarky guy in many ways, but I'm not a big risk taker.

Part of what's made me such a sought-after mentor is the fact that I teach a unique trading system that's based on one principle:

Low Risk and High Reward.

I don't teach people to gamble their money. I don't teach people to throw in a chunk of change on some penny stock to buy that will get wiped of the board in two days (along with your entire investment).

This is a simple, paint-by-numbers system that is ideal for beginners. In fact, I get the most satisfaction out of having people like Andrew and Lynelle... people that aren't any different or "special" than you are... and watching them pull in successful trade after successful trade... right off the bat.

You heard me right.

I'm not going to show you something that will take you weeks to get through. I'm giving you the most essential keys to successful trading in a format that's easily digestible and so "hands on" that you can get started trading the same day.

Hey, there's nothing wrong with instant gratification!

So don't worry if you don't know what a "bid" is or what those "symbols" mean. Don't worry if you've never even thought about trading in the stock market of 2011.

"Introducing The Average Joe's Ultimate Beginner's ."

This written manual and 60 minute audio coaching session is designed to educate you from the ground up.

So look at what you're getting:

Hurl yourself past all the junk and hype and learn directly from a mentor famous for taking one of his students and showing him the simple techniques (any four year old could follow) to clench 87 "stock-market-money-in-the-bank" days in a row (and no, that wasn't luck).

Discover the step-by-step strategy I used to make over $19,743... in one day, with Fortune Magazine peering over my shoulder (those guys have written about a lot of millionaires in action... but even they were surprised to see how easy and effortless my approach was).

Avoid the one disastrous mistake that has been known to claim more beginner-stock-market-trading casualties than any other mistake (Don't worry, it's completely simple to avoid as soon as you know what it is).

Learn why you don't have to be a genius, you don't have to be a gifted at math... and you certainly don't have to spend hours doing research to be as successful as I've been (I made over $24,358 in a best stock by only looking at a few simple charts... I didn't even know the company's name!)

Instantly see straight through a stock to tell if it's going to crash and burn or if it's going to pay for your children's college.

Unleash the same easy-as-pie approach I used to make more money in a three days than most people make in a year.

Discover the secret of "momentum" and why it's crucial for your instant success (and no it's not the same as ice skating and being unable to stop).

Learn every single term, technique, and tool you must have at your disposal as a beginner trader (you miss one of these and you might as well quit while you're ahead).

Why certain stocks that experts "black flag" sometimes will make you so much money those experts will be begging you to tell them how you did it.

The same exact website I use every day to unearth all the research you'll ever need about any stock or any company you want to explore.

The insider technique I use to know exactly when to pull out of a best stock, and when to stay in the game (even if a stock is dropping).

"I Dare You... No Matter Where You Look You're Never Going To Find What I'm About To Offer You."

This is my goal.

I want you to be a success story. It's why I work so hard training people like yourself. When I receive letters from people telling me how powerful my techniques are... and how utterly simple and safe... well, it's like they went ahead and plastered a smile on my face.

So this is what I'm going to do.

As soon as you get this training manual and the 60 minute audio coaching session, you're already going to be equipped with every single fundamental technique you'll need to follow in my footsteps and clone the success my students and I have been enjoying.

But I'm taking it one step farther.

You're also getting a free 30 minute one-on-one coaching consultation with one of my top program coordinators.

Yep, something that I normally charge at least $400, I'm giving to you for almost nothing. Just to make sure that you get absolutely everything out of the written manual and the audio coaching session, I'm going to let you ask me any questions you might have, and make sure that you're well on your way to becoming my next success story.

"How Important Is Your Success? Are You Going To Shoot Yourself In The Foot... Or Step Up And Take The Next Step Towards Absolute Financial Independence?"

This is where I see a lot of people screw up.

No, this isn't free (if you knew how much blood,sweat, and tears I've put into this... you would understand), but when it comes to this point, 95% of everyone reading this becomes short-sighted. Too many people see this as spending money... rather than investing money. Big difference.

Reread Andrew's story. He made an investment to have multiple one-on-one coaching sessions with me, and less than a month later, he's already made back 1/3 of what he invested. You try and find something like that... and the closest thing you'll find is some scam artist giving you an empty promise.

So don't be myopic... you'll regret it later.

And here's the million dollar question. If I were to ask you to pay 15,000 dollars for this program... would you flinch? Maybe. But would you walk away? Well, that's crazy. And here's why.

I'm no smarter than you. I didn't go to business school... I'm not even really "book smart." I'm just another Average Joe. But look at me. I'm living proof that my low risk, high reward system works through and through.

So if you had to invest 15,000 dollars knowing that not only would you return that investment... but then go on to claim a kind of wealth you might not even have the imagination to comprehend... you should be going to the bank as we speak.

But am I asking you for that much? No. Not even close.

I've put a lot of thought into it, and I've decided to only ask you $47. That's it. You get the written manual, the 60 minute recorded coaching session... and yes, you get a free 30 minute one-on-one coaching consultation with me one of my top program coordinators.

"I Don't Believe You. Are You Lying To Me?"

Fair question. Nope.

So why am I asking for so little? It's simple.

My mentors understood something crucial not only for their livelihood but for my success as well. They understood that everything they give, they would get back ten-fold.

And because of their initial investment in me... I quickly realized how valuable they were to my success... and I became loyal. I still go to my mentors and and get their advice. And have I helped them? Absolutely. I owe everything to them.

I want to be your mentor. It's my passion. And it's my greatest skill. In all humility, anyone who gets a chance to work with me is almost guaranteed to be successful.

I want to create a relationship with you. For your sake and mine. You see, in the end, this is a win-win situation. I make an investment in you now, by asking for only $47... and I know that you are going to get so much pure value out of it, that you will implicitly trust me here on out.

It's not often you find someone willing to be honest, right?

"The Catch."

I'm not trying to brag, but I'm in demand as a mentor. I have people all over the world calling me asking me to teach them my low risk, high reward step-by-step system to becoming a wealthy stock market trader.

And I wouldn't have it any other way.

As I've already said. I love what I do. And I love watching absolute beginner's make their first successful trade... and go on to become financial forces to be reckoned with.

But there are only so many hours in a day.

This isn't just an ebook. This isn't just an audio session. This is a chance to get all of that and a one-on-one coaching consultation with one of my top program coordinators.

And given the extreme value that I'm offering, I can only work with twenty people at a time.

So if you snooze... well, you really lose this time.

Don't wait. And I'm going to make it even easier for you.

"My Completely Unnecessary... But Full-Proof Guarantee." There really is no reason to give you a guarantee. Why?

Because I know, from my own experience and every single student I've ever had, that there is no way you can get anything but success.

But I respect the fact that you don't know me yet, and you have to take a leap of faith.

So this is what I'm going to do for you.

You have 90 days to check this out. You have 90 days to test-drive my proven system. And if you aren't completely satisfied. Let me know, and I'll give you a complete refund. No questions asked.

"Don't Shoot Yourself In The Foot. Not Only Does It Hurt, But You'll Regret It For The Rest Of Your Life."

So what are you going to do? If you've gotten to this point of the letter, it's obvious that there's something here that's speaking to you. And do you know what it is?

It's the voice inside you, however loud or soft, that knows that you're staring your future right in the eyes. And it's telling you to do the right thing.

But whatever you do, do it with conviction. Either close this window and walk away confident that you did what was best... or click the button below, and get your hands on the exact tools I've used to become a millionaire... and the exact tools you will use to climb up right next to you.

Do what you're going to do... but do it now.

P.S. How do you think it will really feel if you walk away? Do you think you'll just forget about the fact that you turned your head on a proven, guaranteed opportunity to build your own personal fortune. Do you think it won't haunt you?

I don't mean to be dramatic. It's just the truth

Unless you scrolled all the way to the bottom and read this P.S. first, you already know that this isn't an opportunity to be taken lightly.

So do the right thing. Get your hands on the "Average Joe's Ultimate Beginner's ."

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