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Saturday, January 7, 2012
Thursday, January 5, 2012
3 Predictions about 2012 best stocks to buy for This Week
I went out on a limb last week and came out with mixed results.
Let me once again whip out my trusty, dusty, and occasionally accurate crystal ball to make three calls that may play out over the next few trading days.
1. Mead Johnson Nutrition will bounce back
Mead Johnson Nutrition (NYSE: MJN ) is coming off a dreadful week.
Shares of the baby-formula maker shed 10% of their value on Thursday -- and another 5% on Friday -- after its Enfamil powder was pulled from Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT ) shelves. A 10-day-old infant died of a bacterial infection and tests are being conducted to see whether the formula caused t! he trage dy.
This is a horrible situation.
Whether Mead Johnson Nutrition's product was the cause of the fatal infection or not, Enfamil is going to have a hard road back to regaining the confidence of parents. Brands do bounce back, though. From burgers to fruit juices to peanut butter, once companies do the right thing, consumers usually come back.
Mead Johnson Nutrition's reputation may not bounce back this week, even if it's actually cleared. However, I think investors will be more forgiving. I see Mead Johnson Nutrition's stock closing out the week higher.
2. The S&P 500 will close in positive territory for all of 2011
This has been a wild year for the market, but -- 51 weeks later -- we're essentially where we started.
The S&P 500 was posting slightly negative year-to-date returns through last Thursday's close, and Friday's strong day pushed the popular index back into positive territory. The S&P 500 is now trading 0.6% higher in 2011, and my prediction here is that it will stay positive.
Does this "Santa Claus rally" have legs? A rare case of legislative compromising and stocks that are genuinely cheaper after a year of earnings gains outpacing capital gains should help close out the year on a good note.
3. Zynga will bounce back this week
It's been a rough week and change of publicly traded life for Zynga (Nasdaq: ZNGA ) . The social gaming darling behind Words With Friends, FarmVille, and Mafia Wars 2 closed 5% below its IPO price on its first day on the market two Fridays ago. Zynga shares bucked the generally buoyant market to inch lower last week.
I'm not entirely sold on Zynga being worthy of its $7 billion valuation over the long haul, but I think reports of its demise given weakening trends at some of its marquee titles is overblown. Zynga remains a growing company despite critical reports of its corporate culture and! the fad dish nature of social gaming.
I think this week will have more opportunists taking advantage of picking up Zynga for less than the $10 a share that institutional investors were willing to pay two weeks ago than those losing confidence in the company and cashing out.
Zynga may not trade in the double digits right away, but I think this will be a good week for the company to close higher than Friday's final price of $9.39.
Well, that's three predictions right there. Let's see how I fare this week.
If you like to stay on top of what happens next -- and I'm guessing you do because you're reading this article -- how about checking out Motley Fool's top stock for 2012? It's a free report, but only for a limited time, so check it out now.
- I predicted that Red Hat (NYSE: RHT ) would close higher on Tuesday after posting quarterly results on Monday night. The provider of cost-effective enterprise software solutions did have a solid quarter. Revenue climbed 23% and adjusted earnings grew even faster. However, the market wasn't impressed, sending the shares 8% lower. I was wrong.
- I predicted that KB Home (NYSE: KBH ) would post a deficit in its latest quarter. Homebuilders aren't very popular after years of crumbling real estate prices, but analysts figured that KB Home would be good for a profit of $0.03 a share. I blew this one, too. KB Home had a surprisingly robust -- and profitable -- quarter.
- My final call was for Bed Bath & Beyond (Nasdaq: BBBY ) to beat Wall Street's profit targets, the way that the home-goods retailer has consistently done over the past year. I finally got one right, as the chain's quarterly net income of $0.95 a share bested the $0.88 a share that the pros were expecting.
Let me once again whip out my trusty, dusty, and occasionally accurate crystal ball to make three calls that may play out over the next few trading days.
1. Mead Johnson Nutrition will bounce back
Mead Johnson Nutrition (NYSE: MJN ) is coming off a dreadful week.
Shares of the baby-formula maker shed 10% of their value on Thursday -- and another 5% on Friday -- after its Enfamil powder was pulled from Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT ) shelves. A 10-day-old infant died of a bacterial infection and tests are being conducted to see whether the formula caused t! he trage dy.
This is a horrible situation.
Whether Mead Johnson Nutrition's product was the cause of the fatal infection or not, Enfamil is going to have a hard road back to regaining the confidence of parents. Brands do bounce back, though. From burgers to fruit juices to peanut butter, once companies do the right thing, consumers usually come back.
Mead Johnson Nutrition's reputation may not bounce back this week, even if it's actually cleared. However, I think investors will be more forgiving. I see Mead Johnson Nutrition's stock closing out the week higher.
2. The S&P 500 will close in positive territory for all of 2011
This has been a wild year for the market, but -- 51 weeks later -- we're essentially where we started.
The S&P 500 was posting slightly negative year-to-date returns through last Thursday's close, and Friday's strong day pushed the popular index back into positive territory. The S&P 500 is now trading 0.6% higher in 2011, and my prediction here is that it will stay positive.
Does this "Santa Claus rally" have legs? A rare case of legislative compromising and stocks that are genuinely cheaper after a year of earnings gains outpacing capital gains should help close out the year on a good note.
3. Zynga will bounce back this week
It's been a rough week and change of publicly traded life for Zynga (Nasdaq: ZNGA ) . The social gaming darling behind Words With Friends, FarmVille, and Mafia Wars 2 closed 5% below its IPO price on its first day on the market two Fridays ago. Zynga shares bucked the generally buoyant market to inch lower last week.
I'm not entirely sold on Zynga being worthy of its $7 billion valuation over the long haul, but I think reports of its demise given weakening trends at some of its marquee titles is overblown. Zynga remains a growing company despite critical reports of its corporate culture and! the fad dish nature of social gaming.
I think this week will have more opportunists taking advantage of picking up Zynga for less than the $10 a share that institutional investors were willing to pay two weeks ago than those losing confidence in the company and cashing out.
Zynga may not trade in the double digits right away, but I think this will be a good week for the company to close higher than Friday's final price of $9.39.
Well, that's three predictions right there. Let's see how I fare this week.
If you like to stay on top of what happens next -- and I'm guessing you do because you're reading this article -- how about checking out Motley Fool's top stock for 2012? It's a free report, but only for a limited time, so check it out now.
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Bernanke should look for another line of work
The silent investment story of the year is the collapse of the U.S. dollar against the Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and Swedish krona. The dollar’s decline has been breathtaking, and the fault, as always, lies with the Fed.
Chairman Ben Bernanke assures gullible citizens that he is not “printing the money.” But take a gander at my chart — Adjusted Monetary Base (high-powered money) and Excess Reserves. Parabolic curve comes quickly to mind.
For the Fed chairman to B.S. the citizenry with his “we’re not printing the money” is cause for Mr. Bernanke to look for another line of work. Let me be clear: The Fed’s monetary malfeasance has caused yet another catastrophic bubble.
Is this a fair price for gold?
The market decides, as long as central banks are not manipulating gold’s price, which happens from time to time. Central governments worldwide are all about manipulation. China is conducting a campaign of deliberate undervaluation for its currency, and I do not believe official Japanese economic reports. Japan is too much of an export power to be dragging along at home like the government reports (pre tsunami).
Here at home, we torture the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to mask the true rate of price inflation. And I do not think much of the official unemployment rate. It masks the true rate of underemployment.
As for my monetary price of gold, it measures worldwide debasement of fiat money. When the compound growth rate of central bank currency reserves is an astonishing 13.5%, fiat money debasement is in the air — no ifs, ands or buts.
Chairman Ben Bernanke assures gullible citizens that he is not “printing the money.” But take a gander at my chart — Adjusted Monetary Base (high-powered money) and Excess Reserves. Parabolic curve comes quickly to mind.
For the Fed chairman to B.S. the citizenry with his “we’re not printing the money” is cause for Mr. Bernanke to look for another line of work. Let me be clear: The Fed’s monetary malfeasance has caused yet another catastrophic bubble.
Governments Distort Economic Stats
My theoretical monetary price for gold is now $11,226 per ounce. At such a price, central bank monetary reserves would be backed one-for-one by gold.Is this a fair price for gold?
The market decides, as long as central banks are not manipulating gold’s price, which happens from time to time. Central governments worldwide are all about manipulation. China is conducting a campaign of deliberate undervaluation for its currency, and I do not believe official Japanese economic reports. Japan is too much of an export power to be dragging along at home like the government reports (pre tsunami).
Here at home, we torture the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to mask the true rate of price inflation. And I do not think much of the official unemployment rate. It masks the true rate of underemployment.
As for my monetary price of gold, it measures worldwide debasement of fiat money. When the compound growth rate of central bank currency reserves is an astonishing 13.5%, fiat money debasement is in the air — no ifs, ands or buts.
Payday Indicator at Re! cord Low
In order to gauge the investment climate, I use my mini payday indicator, which needs no more room than the back of a postage stamp. I simply average the Dow yield and the yield on 90-day T-bills. A good norm is 4.5%. At 4.5% or above, I am generally OK with the investment climate as long as the economy is gaining momentum and interest rates are stable or declining.Well, my payday indicator (calculated since I got into the investment industry in the early ’60s) is now at an all-time low of 1.25%. Comfortable I am not.
Goldman vs. Goldman
How about economic momentum?The government’s massaged GDP report indicates upside momentum. Unless one is in the Bernanke-subsidized banking business or the food and beverage industry, the truth is a little different.
The consumer is tapped out and drowning under a wave of brutish mortgage payments. I have no mortgages or debts, and my holdings of liquid assets, including gold and foreign currencies, are at an all-time high.
My charts on Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales do not support a positive view on the economy. Officially, reported job growth is better in the last couple of months, but jeez, non-farm payrolls today are at about the same level as May 2009. That’s almost two years with no net gain. And the rotten employment and new home sales readings come on the heels of a mega money printing campaign at the Fed.
What happens when the press shuts down this summer, when QE2 ends, and when the Bernanke-driven Free Money Truck exits the hood?
It is an outrage that the Fed subsidizes Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), while Mr. and Mrs. Goldman, private citizens, hunkered down in a Boca retirement condo, are getting 4 basis points of T-bill interest on their retirement savings. Are Americans paying any attention to this appalling expropriation? No wonder gold and the Swiss franc are trading at record prices.
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
A Brief History of Teva Pharmaceutical's Returns
Despite constant attempts by analysts and the media to complicate the basics of investing, there are only three ways a stock can create value for shareholders:
Teva shares returned 220% over the past decade. How'd they get there?
Dividends made up only a small portion. Without dividends, shares returned 194% over the last 10 years.
Earnings growth was substantial. Teva's normalized earnings per share grew at an average rate of 22% a year from 2001 until today -- easily among the upper echelon of large-cap companies over the last decade.
But think about that for a moment. Teva's earnings grew far faster than its shareholder returns. Earnings increased over sixfold, while shares a little more than doubled.
Why? This chart explains it:
The good news is that, at 15 times earnings, Teva shares now look reasonably valued. The past decade saw shareholder returns stifled due to falling multiples. The coming decade could see rising, even expanding multiples, allow! ing more of the company's earnings growth to turn into shareholder returns.
Why is this stuff worth paying attention to? It's important to know not only how much a stock has returned, but?where?those returns came from. Sometimes earnings grow, but the market isn't willing to pay as much for those earnings. Sometimes earnings fall, but the market bids shares higher anyway. Sometimes both earnings and earnings multiples stay flat, but a company generates returns through dividends. Sometimes everything works together, and returns surge. Sometimes nothing works and they crash. All tell a different story about the state of a company. Not knowing why something happened can be just as dangerous as not knowing that something happened at all.
- Dividends.
- Earnings growth.
- Changes in valuation multiples.
Teva shares returned 220% over the past decade. How'd they get there?
Dividends made up only a small portion. Without dividends, shares returned 194% over the last 10 years.
Earnings growth was substantial. Teva's normalized earnings per share grew at an average rate of 22% a year from 2001 until today -- easily among the upper echelon of large-cap companies over the last decade.
But think about that for a moment. Teva's earnings grew far faster than its shareholder returns. Earnings increased over sixfold, while shares a little more than doubled.
Why? This chart explains it:
Source: S&P Capital IQ.
Like so many large-cap companies -- particularly pharmaceuticals -- Teva was vastly overvalued a decade ago. Valuations have since contracted, preventing a lot of the company's earnings growth from turning into shareholder returns. The same has been true for larger rivals Pfizer (NYSE: PFE ) and Merck (NYSE: MRK ) , both of which have seen shareholder returns wither as valuations come back to Earth.The good news is that, at 15 times earnings, Teva shares now look reasonably valued. The past decade saw shareholder returns stifled due to falling multiples. The coming decade could see rising, even expanding multiples, allow! ing more of the company's earnings growth to turn into shareholder returns.
Why is this stuff worth paying attention to? It's important to know not only how much a stock has returned, but?where?those returns came from. Sometimes earnings grow, but the market isn't willing to pay as much for those earnings. Sometimes earnings fall, but the market bids shares higher anyway. Sometimes both earnings and earnings multiples stay flat, but a company generates returns through dividends. Sometimes everything works together, and returns surge. Sometimes nothing works and they crash. All tell a different story about the state of a company. Not knowing why something happened can be just as dangerous as not knowing that something happened at all.
- Add Teva Pharmaceuticals to?My Watchlist.
Sunday, January 1, 2012
The Highest-Rated Commercial Bank Stocks
Based on the aggregated intelligence of 180,000-plus investors participating in Motley Fool CAPS, the Fool's free investing community, the 10 stocks below are the highest rated in the commercial banking industry.
CAPS contains more than just the crowd's opinions. The votes of CAPS' best-performing members, known as All-Stars, count more in shaping each company's rating than do the picks of their poorer-performing peers. That way, the highest-rated companies are not just the most popular companies in the industry, in this case Wells?Fargo (NYSE: WFC ) , but are the best of the best. You can then intelligently use members' collective wisdom to?make better decisions and find hidden gems you may never have otherwise heard of.
The commercial banking industry has been struggling as the Federal Reserve's decision to pursue low long-term interest rates limits the profits banks can earn.
The highest-rated commercial bank stock is...
Looking at the aggregate data, we see that our community rates First Republic Bank (NYSE: FRC ) above the rest and for good reason. Fool contributor Rich Smith took a look at the stock this summer and decided First Republic Bank's numbers look cheap, although insider selling concerns and somewhat tepid growth made him reluctant to recommend the stock immediately.
Here are the rest of the 10 highest-rated companies in the industry along with their CAPS rating:
CAPS contains more than just the crowd's opinions. The votes of CAPS' best-performing members, known as All-Stars, count more in shaping each company's rating than do the picks of their poorer-performing peers. That way, the highest-rated companies are not just the most popular companies in the industry, in this case Wells?Fargo (NYSE: WFC ) , but are the best of the best. You can then intelligently use members' collective wisdom to?make better decisions and find hidden gems you may never have otherwise heard of.
The commercial banking industry has been struggling as the Federal Reserve's decision to pursue low long-term interest rates limits the profits banks can earn.
The highest-rated commercial bank stock is...
Looking at the aggregate data, we see that our community rates First Republic Bank (NYSE: FRC ) above the rest and for good reason. Fool contributor Rich Smith took a look at the stock this summer and decided First Republic Bank's numbers look cheap, although insider selling concerns and somewhat tepid growth made him reluctant to recommend the stock immediately.
Here are the rest of the 10 highest-rated companies in the industry along with their CAPS rating:
? | Company | CAPS Rating (out of 5) | Market Cap (in millions) |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Republic Bank | ***** | $3,705 | |
| 2 | Southside Bancshares (Nasdaq: SBSI ) | ***** | $334 |
| 3 | MidWest One Financial Group | ***** | $128 |
| 4 | First Bancorp (Nasdaq: FNLC ) | ***** | $137 |
| 5 | Metro Bancorp | ***** | $118 |
| 6 | First Community Bancshares | ***** | $220 |
| 7 | Towne Bank (Nasdaq: TOWN ) | ***** | $344 |
| 8 | CNB Financial (Nasdaq: CCNE ) | ***** | $178 |
| 9 | Univest Corporation of Pennsylvania | ***** | $254 |
| 10 | Wilshire Bancorp (Nasdaq: WIBC ) | ***** | $242 |
Source: Motley Fool CAPS as of Nov. 7.
Use the table as a first step to help generate ideas for further research. Having a watchlist of promising companies is a great place to start. We can help you keep tabs on these beloved companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service. Click?here to start now.
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