Xenoport (XNPT) Trials Succeed, Origin Agritech (SEED) Gets China Deal and Quest Energy (QELP) Merges

While FedX Q1 earnings fell, jobless claims last week declined last week and housing construction in August rose 1.5%. While the recovery begins in earnest, daily economic news is full of such contrasts giving both bulls and bears something to get excited about. Today's market is subsequently mixed as it see-saws back and forth in early trading, but Xenoport (XNPT), Origin Agritech (SEED) and Quest Energy (QELP) stocks posted gains on good news.

Picking up 26.19% ($5.16) is Xenoport Inc., (XNPT) http://www.xenoport.com/ which is currently trading on the Nasdaq in the $24.13 range. XNPT has a new market cap of $730 million. XNPT has a 3-Month average daily trading volume of 246,692 shares and it tripled that volume surpassing 882,038 shares traded by 11 a.m. EST.

XNPT and partner GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) announced today that the Phase IIb clinical trail evaluating safety and efficacy for GSK1838262/XP13512 (gabapentin enacarbil) were successful. The drug targets neuropathic pain associated with post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) in adults.

All doses of the XNPT drug demonstrated statistically significant improvements over placebos in a 24-hour average pain intensity score. The 14-week, double-blind, placebo-controlled study enrolled 376 subjects with PHN who had been experiencing pain for at least three months following healing of the herpes zoster skin rash.

The XNPT drub is a new chemical entity and a new application for its use to address moderate-to-severe primary restless legs syndrome is being reviewed by the FDA.

BioPharmaceutical XNPT focuses on developing drug candidates that utilize the body's natural nutrient transport mechanisms to enhance the therapeutic benefits of drugs. The XNPT portfolio of product candidates also include: XP19986, for the treatment of gastroesophageal reflux disease and spasticity; XP21279, which is in phase I! clinica l trials for the treatment of Parkinson's disease; and XP21510, for the treatment of menorrhagia or heavy menstrual bleeding.

At $24.13, XNPT is approximately half its 52-week high of $50.81 set on 09-18-08 and is above its 52-week low of $13.36 set on 04-30-09. At $24.13, XNPT is ahead of both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. XNPT is widely held by institutions. It shares out versus float ratio is at parity. Very stable.

Gaining 30.48% ($1.46) early today on its own good news is Origin Agritech (SEED) http://www.originagritech.com/ which is currently trading in $5.93 range on the Nasdaq.

SEED has a new market cap of $133 million. SEED has a 3-Month average daily trading volume of 117,751 and traded 7 times that volume by 11:30 a.m. EST topping 876,756 shares.

SEED announced today it has reached a comprehensive, worldwide agreement with the Institute of Microbiology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and Sichuan Biotech Engineering, Limited.

CAS and Sichuan Biotech jointly own the patent rights to an internally developed gene which is highly tolerant to glyphosate, a herbicide. The herbicide-tolerance gene, demonstrated to be extremely effective in both laboratory and field environments, is entirely new to the consumer markets and has never been commercialized. It is protected by patents granted separately by China and USA separately and that's where SEED comes in.

SEED, for the entire life of the patent, will have exclusive rights to sell and develop corn, soybean, rice, cotton and canola products that contain these technology traits worldwide, both in the territory within China and outside of China. SEED will also receive the rights to improve and further develop this herbicide-tolerant gene.

SEE! D develo ps and sells hybrid crop seeds in China. SEED offers primarily corn, rice, cotton, and canola seeds. SEED was founded in 1997 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

At $5.93, SEED is just below its 52-week high of $6.31 set on 06-03-09 and is above its 52-week low of $1.70 set on 03-03-09. At $5.93, SEED is ahead of both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Its shares out versus float ratio is a little lopsided (22m/10m) and I would like to see more shares in the public float at some point.

a work in progress...

Gaining 10.70% ($0.23) this morning is Quest Energy Partners Inc., (QELP) http://www.qelp.net/ which is currently trading in the $2.35 range on the Nasdaq. QELP has a new market cap of $49 million. QELP has a 3-Month average daily trading volume of 108,738 shares and easily topped that by mid-session.

The interesting story here is that QELP and Quest Resource Corp., (QRCP) and Quest Midstream Partners (private) are all going to merge one day (as previously announced). Until that day, whatever effects one of the publicly traded companies, affects the other.

For example, today QRCP said it has entered into a Second Amended and Restated Credit Agreement with Royal Bank of Canada and will get $8 million in new credit. That pushed shares up 11.94% ($0.07) to $0.74. QRCP also noted that it and QELP and Midstream will be called NewGasCo for the time being. It also noted that QRCP was given 6 months by Nasdaq to get its share price over a dollar for 10 straight days of trading or else...

Watching M&A activity at this level is exciting and potentially rewarding.

The NewGasCo's strategy will be to create shareholder value through the efficient development of unconventional resource plays, including coalbed methane in the Cherokee Basin of sout! heast Ka nsas and northeast Oklahoma and the Marcellus Shale in the Appalachian Basin.

Until the merger is complete, both publicly companies will operate as separate identities. I've chosen to talk about QELP today because it has substantially higher trading volumes and a greater share value.

QELP has a total of approximately 167.1 billion cubic feet equivalent of net proved reserves. QELP also operates approximately 2,438 gross gas wells in the Cherokee Basin and 27 gross oil wells. In addition, QELP has approximately 4,000 oil and gas leases covering approximately 559,084 net acres; and owned the development rights to approximately 557,603 net acres throughout the Cherokee Basin.

At $2.35, QELP is far below its 52-week high of $9.06 set on 09-28-08 and is above its 52-week low of $0.49 set on 03-03-09. At $2.35, QELP is ahead of both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. QELP has trailing twelve month revenues of $113 million. Its shares out versus float ratio is close enough not to raise any red flags.

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American Water Works Co., Inc at its Peak Price of the Year - NYSE:AWK

American Water Works Co., Inc (NYSE:AWK) achieved its new 52 week high price of $31.25 where it was opened at $31.04 UP 0.37 points or +1.20% by closing at $31.19. AWK transacted shares during the day were over 915,597 shares however it has an average volume of 1.32 million shares.

AWK has a market capitalization $5.47 billion and an enterprise value at $11.20 billion. Trailing twelve months price to sales ratio of the stock was 1.92 while price to book ratio in most recent quarter was 1.27. In profitability ratios, net profit margin in past twelve months appeared at 11.01% whereas operating profit margin for the same period at 28.25%.

The company made a return on asset of 3.48% in past twelve months and return on equity of 7.03% for similar period. In the period of trailing 12 months it generated revenue amounted to $2.81 billion gaining $16.04 revenue per share. Its year over year, quarterly growth of revenue was 2.30% holding 10.70% quarterly earnings growth.

According to preceding quarter balance sheet results, the company had $15.62 million cash in hand making cash per share at 0.09. The total of $5.80 billion debt was there putting a total debt to equity ratio 136.08. Moreover its current ratio according to same quarter results was 1.07 and book value per share was 24.26.

Looking at the trading information, the stock price history displayed that its S&P500 52 Week Change illustrated 3.38% where the stock current price exhibited up beat from its 50 day moving average price $30.20 and remained above from its 200 Day Moving Average price $29.36.

AWK holds 175.52 million outstanding shares with 175.29 million floating shares where insider possessed 0.10% and institutions kept 88.40%.

Price Anchoring, Or Why a $499 iPad Seems Inexpensive

photo: buckaroobay

When Steve Jobs introduced the iPad, he showed off its high-resolution screen, touted its revolutionary features, and said things like �boom!� and �wow!� a lot. But that wasn�t what made the crowd go wild.

�What should we price it at?� asked Jobs. �If you listen to the pundits, we�re going to price it at under $1000, which is code for $999.� He put a giant �$999� up on the screen and left it there for ages before finally going on. �I am thrilled to announce to you that the iPad pricing starts not at $999,� said Jobs, �but at just $499.� On-screen, the $999 price was crushed by a falling �$499.�

Showmanship? Sure. But this stuff works. It�s called the anchoring effect, and it�s been well understood by psychologists for decades. Marketers use it against you all the time�but sometimes you can turn the tables, and I�ll tell you how.

�Any time you have to estimate a numerical value, it turns out you�re very susceptible to the power of suggestion,� says William Poundstone, author of the new book Priceless: The Myth of Fair Value (and How to Take Advantage of It). �Any related value that you hear just before you make your estimate really does have this big statistical impact on what number you�re going to estimate.�

In other words, at the moment Jobs says, �The pundits think we�re going to price it at under $1000,� this plants a seed in your mind: an iPad costs something like $1000. When he reveals the real price, you feel like you�ve just saved $500. If he said, �We were thinking of pricing it at $399, but we decided to go for $499,� that would feel like a ripoff�even though absolutely nothing has changed.

You�ve been MSRPed off

Retailers understand this effect very well. It�s why Manufacturer Suggested Retail Prices exist. You run into these all the time, especially in online shopping. Recently I went shopping for a pair of speakers, and I was pleased to note that they were marked down $60 from the MSRP.

Of course! , the MS RP is a completely made-up number, like Jobs�s $999. No one has ever paid MSRP for the speakers. I knew this, but it looked like a good deal anyway.

In fact, studies have shown that “people who are more reflective, are, if anything, even more susceptible to anchoring,� says Poundstone. Phew! �So it�s definitely not just stupid people. This is really about the way the human mind works, and specifically about the way we pull a number out of the air, which we often have to do in a society that�s kind of obsessed with numbers and money.�

Surely, though, if you know about anchoring and how it works, you�ll be relatively immune. Right? Hardly. In one study, the psychologists explained exactly what they were testing and told the subjects to be on guard against it. �When you answer the questions on the following pages,� they wrote, �please be careful not to have this contamination effect happen to you.” The warning didn�t work.

Oh, and I bought the speakers.

Anchoring everywhere

Once you know about the anchoring effect, you see it all over the place. At the supermarket, why do they print a double price label showing the sale price and the regular price? Anchoring. It�s not a deal unless you can compare with the old price. (And if you think you can remember the old price, you�re wrong: shoppers are very bad at remembering what price they typically pay, even for their favorite items.)

How about those menus where you can choose between the small and large plates of pasta? The high price of the large plate makes the small one look like a bargain�even though the small plate is probably more profitable for the restaurant and is the one they expected you to order all along. You know the restaurant with the $150 hamburger? What kind of idiot would order that! I�m going to stick with the rack of lamb for only $45.

Making it work for you

I�d like to give you some tricks for beating the anchoring effect, though don’t get your hopes up too much: as long a! s that�s a human brain you�re carrying around in your skull, that you’ll never succumb to it is pretty hopeless.

Sometimes, however, you get to help set the price. And that�s when, if you can be quick and bold, the research is on your side.

That makes intuitive sense. But it�s wrong. The title of a famous paper sums it up: �The more you ask for, the more you get.� There is zero evidence for a rebound effect. Lawyers who ask for absurd, billion-dollar awards don�t get what they ask for�but they get more than if they�d asked for mere millions. Once that huge number gets into a juror�s head, anchoring takes over.

That�s bad news if someone breaks their leg in your driveway. But if you�re bargaining for a new car or negotiating a salary, says Poundstone, �it�s really a good idea to get your number in first in a negotiation rather than letting the other guy name a number first.�

If you’re selling something, ask for much more than you think you�re going to get. If you�re buying — especially if it’s a big purchase like a car or a house –�bring a friend. �Have someone there with you who will take your side and will say, �Think of reasons why what you�re saying is right and what they�re saying is a ripoff,�� says Poundstone. �It really does have a measurable statistical effect.�

Now, if you�ll excuse me, I need to go shopping. I�m out of cereal, and�what? Cap�n Crunch is $2 off? Better make it two boxes.

Matthew�Amster-Burton, author of the book Hungry Monkey, writes on food�and finance from his home in Seattle.

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Best Wall St. Stocks Today: AIG,CSCO,STT,GOOG,TWX,BBY,WMT,VOD,BBI,GM,YHOO,GS,BCS,SNE

According to Reuters, a price battle among goods makers is beginning.

Reuters reports that payments to AIG (AIG) employees is causing rage among people already concerned about the bailout.

Reuters reports that Bernanke sees a US recovery starting in 2010.

Reuters writes that the Feds want to freeze Ruth Madoff’s assets.

Reuters writes that Obama will announce measures to help small businesses.

Reuters reports that the newspaper crisis is sparking a debate about free online news.

Reuters writes that the Treasury is close to proposing new bank rules.

Reuters reports that the Virgin megastores in the US are closing.

The Wall Street Journal writes that the US will set tougher capital standards for banks and create�greater authority to take over financial firms.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Cisco (CSCO) is starting an era were large tech companies compete more activity and cooperate less.

The Wall Street Journal reports that pension expenses will rise at many state and municipal funds.

The Wall Street Journal reports that stock offerings are being done in a more rapid fashion.

The Wall Street Journal writes that the pay of the CEO of State Street (STT) rose as the stock fell.

The Wall Street Journal reports that OPEC will hold oil output steady.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the G20 are pressing the US to repair its banks.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the value of the dollar and gold are now inseparable.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Google (GOOG) was dealt a blow when its advertising chief left for AOL (TWX).

The Wall Street Journal reports that Best Buy (BBY) is up against a powerful rival in Wal-Mart (WMT).

The Wall Street Journal reports that Congress is advancing legislation to help unions on government contracts.

The Wall Street Journal reports that dividend cuts are starting to hurt investors.

The Wall Street Journal ! reports that Vodafone (VOD) plans to raise money on the value of its assets in Qatar.

The Wall Street Journal reports that revenue to the UK government is being hit by the falling price of oil.

The Wall Street Journal reports that more directors are cutting their own pay.

The Wall Street Journal report that Blockbuster (BBI) results will shed light it debt.

The Wall Street Journal report that federal officials are looking through the GM (GM) operating plan to make a decision about the company;s future.

The Wall Street Journal reports that PC makes and chip companies are moving into the handheld business.

The Wall Street Journal writes that Yahoo! (YHOO) will launch niche video products.

The FT reports that China lost $80 billion in its move to diversify its assets.

The FT reports that US earnings had their first quarterly loss since 1935.

The FT reports that Goldman Sachs (GS) held talks to buy Wachovia.

Bloomberg reports that Barclays (BCS) said it had a strong start to the year.

Bloomberg reports that Sony (SNE) is being pressed to cut the prices of its PS3.

Douglas A. McIntyre

Fabrinet Goes Red

Fabrinet (NYSE: FN  ) reported earnings Feb. 6. Here are the numbers you need to know.

The 10-second takeaway
For the quarter ended Dec. 30 (Q2), Fabrinet beat expectations on revenues and beat expectations on earnings per share.

Compared to the prior-year quarter, revenue increased and GAAP earnings per share dropped to a loss.

Margins shrank across the board.

Revenue details
Fabrinet reported revenue of $186.3 million. The three analysts polled by S&P Capital IQ expected to see revenue of $177.5 million. Sales were 48% lower than the prior-year quarter's $173.7 million.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Dollar amounts in millions.

EPS details
Non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.45. The four earnings estimates compiled by S&P Capital IQ averaged $0.42 per share on the same basis. GAAP EPS were -$0.96 for Q1 against $0.46 per share for the prior-year quarter.

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Quarterly periods. Figures may be non-GAAP to maintain comparability with estimates.

Margin details
For the quarter, gross margin was 9.2%, 360 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was -37.9%, 4,750 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was -34.4%, 4,300 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.

Looking ahead
Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $76.7 million. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is -$0.42.

Next year's average estimate for revenue is $557.6 million. The average EPS estimate is $0.33.

Investor sentiment
! The stock has a two-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 23 members rating the stock outperform and three members rating it underperform. Among seven CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), four give Fabrinet a green thumbs-up, and three give it a red thumbs-down.

Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Fabrinet is hold, with an average price target of $18.38.

Over the decades, small-cap stocks, like Fabrinet, have provided market-beating returns, provided they're value priced and have solid businesses. Read about a pair of companies with a lock on their markets in "Too Small to Fail: Two Small Caps the Government Won't Let Go Broke." Click here for instant access to this free report.

• Add Fabrinet to My Watchlist.

Best China Stocks 2012 - ATML, LTXC Advance to the Head of the Small Cap Semiconductor Class

Semiconductor stocks Atmel Corp. Best China Stocks 2012 - (ATML) and LTX-Credence Corp. (LTXC) were up firmly yesterday, even though the rest of the semiconductor industry didn't follow their lead. The same goes for the week so far - these two stocks are up, but the group as a whole has been flat. Nevertheless, and perhaps despite, the semi industry's two best today may also be the two best stock prospects going forward,

Best China Stocks 2012 - Atmel Corp. (ATML) was up 2.2% following Tuesday's announcement that the company was debuting its first in a series of 400 Mhz ARM926-embedded MPUs. However, since about three people in the whole world know what that means (and even fewer investors), it's difficult to attribute the gain to the news. That's a good thing though, as it means ATML shares are pointed higher under their own power.

Though profits have been hit and miss of late, note that the company swing to a profit during Q1 of this year... a time when earnings were elusive at best. If analysts have underestimated the EPS this time around with the forecast of a 5 cent loss for the quarter, Atmel shares could get even more traction.

Technically speaking, the stock is getting positioned to pop out of a very long-term wedge shape.

Best China Stocks 2012 - LTX-Credence Corp. (LTXC) ended the day higher by 9.2% on no news whatsoever. The last word form the company came in mid-July following the development of a couple of big sales opportunities stemming from Maxim Integrated Products and Blood Stem Cell Storage Company. There was no certainty or time frame associated with the news though.

Most likely, LTXC shares took a cue from Kulicke and Best China Stocks 2012 - Soffa (KLIC) following the company's anno! uncement of Q3's results and Q4's estimates. In a nutshell, Kulicke's third quarter was a disaster, but the company is looking for revenue to come in at mre than twice what analysts originally expected.

Though Kulicke's outlook may be excessively optimistic, LTXC's chart suggests investors were already expecting a parallel improvement in semiconductor sales from LTX-Credence. The slow U-shaped reversal has continued on with growing volume... which is frequently the missing piece for many failed chart recoveries.

As for an outlook regarding all the small cap semiconductor stocks, the S&P 600 Semiconductor Index as well as the S&P 600 Semi Equipment Index both look more than a little overbought. As such, a bullish industry/market-cap bias is discouraged.

However, both Atmel (semiconductor manufacturer) and LTX-Credence (semiconductor equipment and materials) have lagged their respective indices, and only recently have they started to move. These two stocks could indeed be worthy purchases at these prices.

Best Companies to invest - Raymond James Hires 2 UBS Advisors in S.C.

Raymond James Financial said Tuesday that it had recruited two financial advisors with a combined $125 million in assets and $850,000 in yearly sales.
The two new Raymond James & Associates advisors are Best Companies to invest - Carolyn Edwards, CFP, and Roy Seay in Mount Pleasant, S.C.
“I am pleased to welcome Carolyn and Roy to the Raymond James family,” said Scott Curtis, senior vice president of the private client group of RJA, the employee broker-dealer of Raymond James, in a press release. “Our advisor-centric culture and broad platform continues to attract some of the very best advisors in the industry, and we’re proud to be affiliated with them.”
Edwards and Seay join the firm from UBS and will operate as the Seay/Edwards Group of Raymond James in Mount Pleasant, S.C., which is near Charleston.
Edwards spent 11 years as a vice president of investments with Best Companies to invest - UBS, while Seay served as a divisional vice president of UBS for the same amount of time. Before joining UBS, Seay – who has worked in the industry for more than four decades – was a partner and branch manager with J.C. Bradford & Co., for 15 years.
The two advisors provide financial, estate and retirement planning, and the team specializes in bonds, particularly South Carolina municipals.

“Changing firms can be very disruptive to your business, so we knew this was a once in a lifetime move, and we better get it right. There is no question that we got it right!”

said Edwards, in a statement. “Every day Raymond James proves that the client is at the top of the pyramid. It is very refreshing.”
“When we realized that [Raymond James Executive Chairman] Tom James and [Raymond James & Associates President] Dennis Zank personally knew Jimmy Bradford, who had been a mentor to me and many others, that connection had a big impact on us, and we knew we had found a home,” Seay explained in a press release.
Through its three primary broker-dealer subsidiaries, Raymond James Financial has more than 5,300 financial advisors in the United States, Canada and overseas – of which close to 1,300 are U.S.-based RJA advisors.
Total client assets are about $266 billion, of which approximately $34 billion are managed by the firm’s asset-management subsidiaries.
Earlier in the week, as it kicked off the Raymond James 32^nd Annual Institutional Investors Conference from March 6-9, the firm said it had been selected as a Greenwich Associates Quality Leader in two categories for 2010.
For the second time in three years, Raymond James says, it earned top marks among clients in U.S. Equity Research and Analyst Service Quality–Small and Mid-Cap Funds, and U.S. Equity Sales Quality–Small and Mid-Cap Funds. The firm was recognized in the same categories in 2008.
The awards are based on a 2010 survey that involves 40,000 large corporate and institutional users of financial services and products, according to Best Companies to invest - Greenwich.

2013 Good Stocks - Has American Capital Agency Become the Perfect Stock?

Every investor would love to stumble upon the perfect stock. But will you ever really find a stock that provides everything you could possibly want?
One thing's for sure: You'll never discover truly great investments unless you actively look for them. Let's discuss the ideal qualities of a perfect stock, then decide if 2013 Good Stocks - American Capital Agency (Nasdaq: AGNC  ) fits the bill.
The quest for perfection
Stocks that look great based on one factor may prove horrible elsewhere, making due diligence a crucial part of your investing research. The best stocks excel in many different areas, including these important factors:

• Growth. Expanding businesses show healthy revenue growth. While past growth is no guarantee that revenue will keep rising, it's certainly a better sign than a stagnant top line.
• Margins. Higher sales mean nothing if a company can't produce profits from them. Strong margins ensure that company can turn revenue into profit.
• Balance sheet. At debt-laden companies, banks and bondholders compete with shareholders for management's attention. Companies with strong balance sheets don't have to worry about the distraction of debt.
• Money-making opportunities. Return on equity helps measure how well a company is finding opportunities to turn its resources into profitable business endeavors.
• Valuation. You can't afford to pay too much for even the best companies. By using normalized figures, you can see how a stock's simple earnings multiple fits into a longer-term context.
• Dividends. For tangible proof of profits, a check to shareholders every three months can't be beat. Companies with solid dividends and strong commitments to increasing payouts treat shareholders well.

With those factors in mind, let's take a closer look at American! Capital Agency.

Factor	What We Want to See	Actual	Pass or Fail?
2013 Good Stocks - Growth	5-Year Annual Revenue Growth > 15%	129.4%*	Pass
�	1-Year Revenue Growth > 12%	176.7%	Pass
Margins	Gross Margin > 35%	100%	Pass
�	Net Margin > 15%	90.6%	Pass
Balance Sheet	Debt to Equity < 50%	796.7%	Fail
�	Current Ratio > 1.3	0.06	Fail
Opportunities	Return on Equity > 15%	19.8%	Pass
Valuation	Normalized P/E < 20	9.66	Pass
Dividends	Current Yield > 2%	16.4%	Pass
�	5-Year Dividend Growth > 10%	9.2%*	Fail
�	�	�	�
�	Total Score	�	7 out of 10

Source: S&P Capital IQ. Total score = number of passes. *Three-year growth rates.

Since we looked at American Capital Agency last year, the mortgage REIT has dropped a point. Dividend growth has slowed and recently even reversed course, which could be a sign of things to come for the company.
Investors have gravitated to mortgage REITs for their outsized dividends. With bonds yielding next to nothing, the double-dig! it yield s that American Capital Agency and its peers offer look exceptionally attractive.
But recently, changing trends are threatening those dividends. In its most recent quarter, American Capital Agency reported lower earnings per share due to a big jump in outstanding shares, and more importantly cut its dividend from $1.40 per share to $1.25 for the first quarter of 2012. The company's interest rate spread fell below 2%, prompting further concerns.
The challenges aren't unique to American Capital Agency. Annaly Capital (NYSE: NLY  ) saw similar drops in interest rate spreads, prompting its own dividend cut. Moreover, Annaly and 2013 Good Stocks - Chimera Investment (NYSE: CIM  ) have started to clamp down on their leverage ratios, which helps make them less sensitive to adverse conditions going forward (but comes at the expense of some profits). Additionally, with new initiatives to help underwater homeowners refinance, prepayment rates could also hurt.
Given its leverage, American Capital Agency is as close to perfection as it's likely going to get. If conditions continue to worsen, though, the company could deteriorate further in the years ahead.
Keep searching
No stock is a sure thing, but some stocks are a lot closer to perfect than others. By looking for the perfect stock, you'll go a long way toward improving your investing prowess and learning how to separate out the best investments from the rest.
American Capital Agency has plenty of promise, but we've got some ideas you may like even better. Let me invite you to learn about three smart long-term stock plays in the Fool's latest special report. It's yours for the taking and is absolutely free, but don't miss out -- click here and read it today.
Click here to add American Capital Agency to My Watchlist, which can find all of our Foolish analysis on it and all your other stocks.

Hot Stocks To Buy For 2012 - Pick the one that gained during oil's last runup

Gas prices are skyrocketing � they�re up about 32% or 87 cents a gallon in the last year. Not only do they show no signs of abating, but there is little evidence that consumers are changing their driving habits. Back in 2008 when gasoline hit $4.11 a gallon, consumers started taking public transportation in droves after gasoline prices spiked 30 cents in a month.
�So far, the shocking rise in gas prices has not led to a big driving cutback, according to the New York Times. This means that prices will probably surge over the 2008 record, and it�raises the question of how investors can profit.

Should they buy stock in an integrated oil producer like ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) or a refiner like Valero (NYSE:VLO)?
To pick which one, it helps to look at history and the future. To examine history, let’s look at how the two stocks performed from January to July 2008, when oil prices spiked to $147 a barrel. For the future, we compare the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the two companies to their earnings growth rates. The one with the best historical performance and the lowest Price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio should win this faceoff. As we’ll see, the outcome isn’t completely obvious.
When it comes to historical performance, ExxonMobil held up better. ExxonMobil fell 7% between January and August 2008 to $80�from $86. During that same period, Valero plunged 57% to $30�from $70. I think the decline in both stocks during a time when the price of oil was rising is an important warning to investors that there can be a big disconnect between the price of oil and how equities react to its changes.
A quick comparison of the income statements of both companies during the first nine months of 2008 reveals that ExxonMobil put in a stronger performance. Valero’s revenue was up 51% to $100.5 billion but its costs — mostly oil — were up 60% to $97.1 billio! n — ; as a result, its net income fell 55% to $2.1 billion.
During that same period, ExxonMobil did better — its revenue rose 37% to $393 billion while its costs climbed 37% to $324 billion — resulting in a 29% net income pop to $37.4 billion.
This analysis suggests that during an environment of rapidly rising oil and gasoline prices, the profits –�and stock market value –�of a refiner are more at risk than those of an integrated energy company. That’s because as prices at the pump rise, people cut back on consumption even though the price of oil going into the refinery remains high — thus squeezing refinery margins. Meanwhile, an integrated energy company is more diversified — and its profits are less volatile.
�
Despite its inferior performance in 2008, investors seem to be putting a greater value on Valero’s shares than those of ExxonMobil. And Valero has the lowest PEG ratio of the two — I think a PEG of 1.0 means a stock is fairly valued — suggesting it’s relatively cheap.
Here’s how:

• ExxonMobil 1.76 on a P/E of 13.7 with 7.8% earnings growth to $8.66 in 2012
• Valero 1.04 on a P/E of 17 with 16.4% earnings growth to $3.43 in 2012

There is, of course, risk in buying energy stocks now. The biggest risk is that the speculators that are driving up the price of oil could decide to take their profits. After all, those speculators control 81% of the trading volume on the futures exchange. Regulators could easily drive them out by requiring them to boost how much money they must set aside for each contract. And the settling of the conflict in Libya could be the catalyst for such an energy selloff.
I�d guess most of the spike from rising oil is reflected in the stock prices of both companies, but ExxonMobil is the safer bet for now.

Great Stocks 2014 - Best Wall St. Stocks Today: CJ,FUJ,HIT,HMC,NIPNY,SNE,NTT,DCM,TM,CHL,CHU,CN,HBC,PCW

Great Stocks 2014 - Stocks:  (CJ)(FUJ)(HIT)(HMC)(NIPNY)(SNE)(NTT)(DCM)(TM)(CHL)(CHU)(CN)(HBC)(PCW)
Markets in Asia were pounded down.
The Nikkei fell .6% to 17,383. Bridgestone fell .6% to 2620. Canon fell .6% to 6350. Fuji Film rose 4% to 4980. Hitachi rose 1% to 810. Honda fell 1.2% to 4750. NEC rose .5% to 610. NTT fell 1.3% to 602000. Docomo fell .8% to 184000. Softbank rose .4% to 2835. Sharp rose 2% to 2055. Sony fell 1.4% to 5550. Toshiba fell 1.3% to 770. Great Stocks 2014 - Toyota fell 1.1% to 7950. Yahoo Japan fell 1.6% to 45200.
The Hang Seng fell 1.7% to 20,160. Cathay Pacific fell 3.4% to 20.1. China Mobile fell 3.2% to 71.6. China Netcom rose .2% to 19.46.Great Stocks 2014 - China Unicom fell 4.7% to 10.48. Great Stocks 2014 - HSBC fell .7% to 142.3. PCCW fell .2% to 4.68.
The KOSPI fell .8% to 1,360.
The Straits Times fell .2% to 3,126.
The Shanghai Composite fell 4.9% to 2,786.
Data from Reuters
Douglas A. McIntyre

Yum Brands tries to appeal to young fast food audience with ads

Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM), parent of KFC, took some heat from shortening ?Kentucky Fried Chicken? to a three letter moniker. But now YUM appears to be backtracking, putting some faith in marketing KFC founder Col. Sanders to young fast food diners.


To celebrate the 120 birthday of its founder Colonel Sanders, KFC is beginning a yearlong PR blitz to not only reintroduce the fast-food chain?s real-life entrepreneur ? but? to educate the overwhelming majority of young American consumers who think he?s a fake. A new survey of young American adults ages 18-25 found that more than 60% could not identify Col. Harland Sanders and that 52% of them considered his image part of the restaurant?s fake branding.


In fact, Harland Sanders was a real person ? a man who in the 1970s was one of the world?s most recognizable celebrities. At age 65, with only a sixth-grade education and a $105 Social Security check, Sanders turned a Southern restaurant into a multi-million dollar global chicken empire. By 1976, he was ranked as the world’s second most recognizable celebrity after Muhammad Ali. Sander died at age 90.


But the real question behind KFC?s move isn?t whether the Colonel can stand toe-to-toe with Ali again. The question is whether KFC is just going to confuse diners more. When Kentucky Fried Chicken dropped ?Kentucky,? ?Fried? and,? yes, ?Chicken? from its name to become KFC, it was part of a move against greasy Southern identity alongside a push for its healthier-appearing grilled options.


The move that happened slowly through the 1990s has since led to marketing confusion with consumers ? is it healthy chicken offerings or fried-finger-lickin? good? ? and rankled chain owners. The Association of Kentucky Fried Chicken Franchisees blames this and its health-conscience ?unthink KFC? marketing campaign as the reason for poor revenues and a decrease in its customer base. U.S. sales saw a decline of -7% at KFC in th! e second quarter.


It?s worth noting that Yum isn?t the only stock to stumble with rebranding. PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) still feels the burn from its 2009 (but short-lived) redesign of Tropicana orange juice packaging. In only two months ? with a 20% drop in sales ? the company reverted back to the original logo and branding. As well, Pepsi lost sales with another flagship product redesign ? Gatorade (or G as it is currently called). Volume sales of the sports drink fell 13.7% in the first quarter after the name change.


KFC is now opting to show its history to a public that seems largely indifferent to the man that made fried chicken a national obsession, not just a Southern one. But reintroducing the Colonel may be a little too late.


Though his legacy didn?t die with him, KFC is now ?unthinking? the decision to give it an early funeral. Whether it works and boosts sales, however, is anyone?s guess


As of this writing, Burke Speaker did not own a position in any of the stocks named here.


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Hot Stocks To Invest In 2013 - IvyBot Was Born To Make Huge Profits

IvyBot is the one of the automated Forex robots which has entered the Forex trading market recently. In today’s world, Forex traders definitely need an efficient tool to help them weather the turbulence of the trading world. Ivybot is invented by a group of Ivy League guys, since college they started trading the currency pairs, they have put in their knowledge of financial understanding, mathematics and computer programming to bring out this product. Ivybot is basically the electronic condensation of many-year manual trading experience for the benefit of the general public. They have been using the Ivybot personally and gain profits. Here are a few items enlisting the special features of the trading software.
1. Hot Stocks To Invest In 2013 - Ivybot is made up of 4 separate robots, each robot is specially designed for managing different currency trading pair available in the market. Other systems just have one set of code to do all the calculations of whatever pairs they can handle, but Ivybot has each robot tailored to trade in each currency pair, resulting in four codes. The robot is being updated every now and so with respect to the recent changes present in the Forex market. The web price listed nowadays is about $149.95 which is one-time payment. This automated Forex robot says it can create more than 500 percent of the original deposit in about 190 days in year 2009.
IvyBot works 24/7 always and keep tracking the price movement and market conditions, compared with human monitoring, they are not panicked, affected by greed or read inconsistently. Ivybot has proved its efficiency by having real market as well as backtest results in the field of trading. Not only giving customers unlimited updates, the Forex trading software has also been backtested, optimized, and forward tested, hence it attracts lots of customers to get it and study the market.

Additionally, Ivybot Forex can predict the result of certain trades in the market based on the history of those trades. I! t adhere s to an algorithm that combines variables like forward projection scanning, volatility, technical price patterns, market liquidity, trend analysis, and weighted price action. In this department, Ivybot Forex scored 98 percent. Moreover, Ivybot Forex prides itself in its simplicity. Even beginners can easily absorb the subject in less time as the user manual and video tutorials are included in the package. It’ll cost you $149.95 but it’s money invested wisely as the chances of you trading profitably is high. Also, a free demo version is available.
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